Punxsutawney Phil Makes His 140th Weather Prediction: Six More Weeks of Winter
On February 2, 2026, Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, drew national attention as Punxsutawney Phil gave his 140th Groundhog Day forecast. Since 1887, thousands of fans have bundled up to gather at Gobbler's Knob and watch the tradition.
This year, Phil emerged from his burrow around 7:25 a.m. ET under crisp, clear skies and saw his shadow. According to folklore interpreted by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle, this means six more weeks of winter are ahead. The announcement was met with cheers, groans, and playful boos from the crowd of about 30,000 people, who endured single-digit Fahrenheit temperatures and even lower wind chills to hear the verdict.
The prediction aligns with Phil's historical tendencies—he has favored a longer winter far more often than an early spring. Records show he has seen his shadow around 110 times since reliable tracking began (with about 10 years of records missing in the early days), compared to just 21 early-spring calls. The 2026 forecast marks the second consecutive year of "more winter," following the same outcome in 2025.
The event, organized by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, featured the usual pomp and ceremony: top-hatted members of the Inner Circle summoned Phil from his tree stump, and club president Thomas Dunkel translated the groundhog's supposed "groundhogese"—a series of winks, chirps, and nods—into the official proclamation: "There is a shadow here on my ground. Six more weeks of winter abound."
This year's frigid conditions added extra drama to the festivities. With temperatures hovering around -1 to 3°F in Punxsutawney and recent winter storms still fresh in memory, the prediction felt particularly fitting to many attendees. AccuWeather meteorologists noted ongoing cold and potential snow in the eastern U.S., which seemed to echo Phil's call for extended winter weather.
Of course, not everyone takes Phil's forecast as gospel. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has analyzed its accuracy over recent decades and found it to hover around 35-40%, roughly equivalent to the odds of a coin flip. Critics point out that there's no scientific basis for predicting seasonal transitions based on a single morning's cloud cover and a groundhog's shadow. Still, Phil remains America's most famous (and arguably most beloved) seasonal forecaster, drawing crowds year after year and boosting the local economy in this town of about 6,000 residents, which swells dramatically on Groundhog Day.
Whether Phil's prediction holds true or not, the 140th celebration underscored the enduring charm of the tradition. Rooted in ancient European folklore (originally involving bears or badgers) and adapted by German immigrants in Pennsylvania, Groundhog Day blends whimsy, community spirit, and a bit of hope for warmer days ahead—even if Phil says winter isn't quite ready to loosen its grip.
For now, bundle up: according to the Seer of Seers, spring is still six weeks away. Happy Groundhog Day!
